The Drill Down

You're dead on with the analysis, except that I believe the random X-Y movement is just a post-processing effect. They are using a simple tripod camera with a still image overlay on the left side which is frozen until the balls have been replaced. Each reconstructed image is zoomed into with software by about 5% so it can be randomly panned in the X-Y plane to make it look like a hand-held camera.

The theory of a robotic X-Y camera with pre-recorded movement is way too complicated an unnecessary when you can just use simple post-processing.

Hmmm... I disagree, this doesn't seem like a Derren way to work.
I have also blogged about this....
http://www.higgypop.co.uk/post/652/

It doesn't seem like Derren's style to use camera tricks but how do you discredit unnecessarily trying to cover up the fact that the camera is on a tripod and that the opening shots are pre-recorded.

If Derren's mathematical explanation was true, why would he try to cover things up and reveal the prediction after the draw. The evidence is pretty damning.

I don't believe the mathematical explanation, I'm still undecided.
I don't understand what you mean about him trying to cover up the fact that the camera is on a tripod and that the opening shots are pre-recorded.
Who's said the camera was on a tripod or the start was pre-recorded and when did he try to cover it up?

The aforementioned video explains how all of this is possible.

Sorry you post was confusng. I get what you mean now, videos shows how it looks like Derren is trying to distract us from the fact that the camera could be on a tripod - he's not trying to cover-up the fact, it was part of a trick.

The only reason for the (also pre recorded) camera shot in the back of the studio was so they could cut from pre-recorded handheld to live with a tripod. There isn't really any good reason anyone would want to pull a second camera into the room for a 2 second shot, and no good reason to put it that far away unless they wanted any changes to be hard to detect. The videos also claim to see a slight difference in his arm positions in that cut, but, as intended, the distance of one shot compared to the other makes this unclear to me.

A lottery employee told me about this ticket a couple of months ago, and I've been playing it quite a bit since then. I've been going on the assumption that the bingo lottery is actually positive, when you add the net value of the remaining lower tier prizes to to the roughly even money for the top prize.

dayummmmmmmmm

Derren Brown didn't predict the lottery - we only saw his "prediction" after the lottery numbers were drawn. For the word prediction to be accurate, we needed to see the numbers before the lottery was drawn. If you are still unsure, ask yourself why we did not see Derren's "predicted" numbers before the live draw.

Um, the ball is slightly raised at the beginning of the show, and at the end of the show - he just turned the podium round so it was on the other side.

http://www.twotc.co.cc see for yourself

Um, the ball is slightly raised at the beginning of the show, and at the end of the show - he just turned the podium round so it was on the other side.

He rigged the machine. He told you at the end.

No, he didn't. It is just a more probable explanation than an actual prediction, i.e. the wisdom of crowds fad. That's the whole point he wanted to bring across. Still, the real explanation is, boringly, the camera trick. They used the same trick in a TV ad for The Events already, with his right hand being replaced by the hand of a juggler.

yup, but people keep forgetting the LIVE part of all this. Applying fake camera shake requires the frames to be adjusted and rendered out - not done in real time.

Thats what all these videos keep forgetting to mention - anyone with a bit of talent can do a convincing split screen, and even introduce camera shake - but you can't fake that LIVE. I feel like saying it over and over again as no one listens. *LIVE*

Sorry to spoil it for you, but it is absolutely possible to introduce camera shake live. You could do it with an off the shelf PC if you wanted. This is 2009.

the fact that you mention an 'off the shelf pc' shows how little you actually know on the subject. the only way the camera shake could be introduced live is via a motion control rig with pre-programmed shake already performed. Off the shelf PC it aint. This is 2009, not 2029.

No, I've created simulated camera shake using Sony Vegas, I think there is even an option for it.

The subliminal advertising trick, is a trick also. He does not use subliminal messages to influence the ad men. The clip of them driving through the city with the hints throughout was shot after the initial stunt. And the same way he used misdirection to secretly predict the lottery he used misdirection to copy the ad men's design. I'm sure something else happened while they were in the room that allowed him to replace his envelope, but it was probably cut from the final broadcast so it appeared seamless. Think critically.

Derren is incredible. He sets out every time by saying that everything is does is deception, and obviously he didn't "predict" the lottery. This man is incredibly good at what he does, and goes deep into the psyche of the human mind.

People get annoyed with him because they don't like being deceived.

It's like the people who talk to the dead to bring closure to relatives, they're brilliant at what they do but morally it is wrong to deceive people. Even worse for Derren is that he discredits other charlatans only to be discredited himself.

Aha!

Kill me at burning man, mate

I see how this feat could have been accomplished using "split screen" or other camera trickery, but I've been watching Derren Brown for years, and find it hard to believe that someone of his calibre would stoop so low as to use camera tricks. That bit doesn't make sense at all to me. Anyway, the card game "21" can be worked out using maths and counting cards, and it's true that the power of suggestion can affect outcomes (quantum physics). A shame we couldn't have seen the predicted numbers on the balls prior to the actual lotto draw taking place, then maybe, just maybe, people might have believed their own eyes.

The legal nonsense about not being able to reveal the draw before the BBC was a lie so he didn't have to show the numbers beforehand. It's was actually not illegal for Derren to reveal his prediction for the lottery beforehand because it was merely his own personal prediction.

Many newspapers spotted this flaw too. I would have believed it too if we saw the numbers beforehand but he delayed it for a reason. We also saw that Derren did not show the numbers to the wisdom crowd group either. The view was blocked by the briefcase and he placed the balls in a container without showing anyone.

err, from my university physics I don't recall quantum physics theory on the power of suggestion. please, let's keep it real.

err, from my university physics I don't recall quantum physics theory on the power of suggestion. please, let's keep it real.

The camera tricks involved are irrelevant and unprovable. What is provable within the program is that participant show as "Row 9" of the 24 group was clearly a plant - to make the number make sense. The absolute mathematical proof for this is given at - www.mpb1234.blog.co.uk - have fun reading. The game is up I think. Regards to all. MPB

The usage of camera tricks are relevant and have been proved, we're waiting for someone to disprove the evidence provided.

It is my guess that he used special balls with electronic ink and had someone change the numbers remotely.

hilesiyle birlikte guzel bı numara

Who the hell cares? Go outside and get some sun you pasty pricks.

I agree, the numbers should be shown before the actual draw.

Wow are people really that stupid? I mean no offense, but these video's easily show how it can be done, and the breaker is when he's reading back the number 23, the ball on the left does move. Watch any recording of it, and you can see the ball move. You can actually see it almost stretch as for a moment both the orginal ball and the new ball are in the same frame, one lower and one higher, making it looked oblong.

I don't care who this guy is, it's easy to see what he's doing here. And why does video recording making him any less of a magician or whatever? It somewhat complicated, and if the helper didn't mess up with the one ball, then it would have been almost impossible to tell though graphic glitches alone. But even if that helper didn't screw up there are so many laughable excuses he uses to trick people.

Why doesn't he let all his predicting people see their numbers? Hell even afterwards, if he really is worried about legal issues. All he would have to do is let everyone have their paper's back and do the math, but instead he does everything himself, and secretively. Then he hides the balls, and never shows any true transition with them. Hell he could've thrown that white tube away as soon as the camera changed. And why did he do it in an empty study? He should have had a crowd watching him, but no he didn't want anyone to see because if they did the stunt would be ruined. Also the only reason he shows "two" cameras is to show that he is by himself. After the first shot, he never uses that back camera again. The whole thing is just ridiculous, and I don't understand how people are still believing this. I'm sorry to say be there is no such thing as magic or special powers. And if there are people are showing them because they have never been proven. James Randi has put up millions of dollars for anyone who can prove something like this, and guess what, no one has ever proved anything. No psycics, no healers, no magic, not even people able to tell the difference between $3 HDMI cables and $300 ones. No one has been able to prove anything, and as much as that's a disappointment, it's just how it is.

I have a degree in random theory. Hardly anything he said made any sense at all. Please remember, he is a magician. This is just a trick.

The video pointing out the pause in the motion control camera is so the split screen can happen has the right idea, but that's not why it pauses. Since the motion control camera is working on an electronic rig, the transition from fake ball podium to real one can happen during the movement. The pause is because the camera is switching from one animation to another, namely ambient fake shakiness in place to the animation that handles the dramatic zoom in on the final results. For the sake of live TV, they don't know how long exactly it will take to reveal the numbers, so they can't just time from the beginning of the shot into the zoom - it has to be a separate animation to be queued. The pause in the movement is just that.

Did he actually win any money from "predicting" the lotto?

Considering he did no such predicting, and never revealed any numbers until after the lotto was drawn, it's an easy guess that the only profit he saw was from the broadcast of his magic trick.

where tha white women at

simply amazing...

I think it's pretty obvious that this trick has been explained thoroughly. True, simple camera trickery is not as intriguing as Derren's hypnosis or NLP stuff, but think of it this way - part of Derren's whole bit is to expose irrational beliefs. People are still arguing about his bogus mathematical explanation, even after others have shown how the trick can be accomplished using camera technology. Perhaps Derren anticipated the reaction and considers that part of the trick as a whole.

A real trick would have been producing a winning ticket with those numbers on it. :)

Do not call Derren Brown a magician, it is highly insulting.

He began his professional career as a table-hopping restaurant magician in Bristol. He was one of the most technically accomplished card magicians in the country. He has released instructional magic books and DVDs to the magic community (no, NOT the ones you can buy in W H Smith). He is undoubtedly a magician. Just because he doesn't pull rabbits out of hats does not mean he is performing magic. He just calls it something else.

The Trick was not actually predicting the lottery, but convincing people he had thee ability too, he did a simple camera trick, but because of his reputation and abilities people will not be able to settle on this solution.....therefore Derren suceeded in his trick because many people actually believe he predicted it,.

The really interesting stuff are the other `tricks' he demonstrated during the explanations - like the guy stamping on a series of plastic cups, under one of which was supposedly a knife (there wasn't a knife, but there was a mouse so he still had to be sure somehow that the guy wouldn't stamp on the wrong one)

I could have never figured it out

Derren Brown's version of how he got 24 people to select the numbers does not add up.
The 24 selected their numbers the total was then added of the 24 selections and then divided by 24 to get a number prediction. This was repeated 6 times.
One of the numbers predicted was number 2, now the total of the numbers selected by the
24 people must have been 48. 24 selections from 1 to 49 means 24 people must have selected numbers that were very low with an average of 2 possible however if one person chose number 26 or over the total would be over 48. Ask 24 people if 2 picked numbers that added together totalled 27 or more it is not possible to achieve the 2number required.
What do you believe?
Numerate (lottery nut)

Your point is valid but they weren't restricted to 1-49, they could pick any number including negative numbers.

Thanks for your comment however if they picked negative numbers above 49 this would make it even more unlikely to result in a 2

Not my rules, that's what Derren said in the show.

Plus 2 is still as likely if someone picked -62 because someone else may have picked +260.

It has been 3 months since I read and tried to impliment what Derren is showing on this article. I must say that everything i have done so far as been unsuccessful. Altough I won a minor $5 in the proccess so whether that was down to his teaching or pure luck is still to be found out.

We've just started a kind of 'social/psychic experiment' to try and predict the lotto numbers through a recognised mental technique called remote viewing, combined with the power of an online community. Fun and fascinating.
www.lottopreview.com